Lowe’s and Home Depot both noted a very strong December that benefited due to calendar shifts to the detriment of November and January. As shown in the chart above, the traffic in the two weeks following Christmas was very robust. Also of note, the deep drop in traffic ahead of Christmas reflects the absence of one weekend between Holiday-2024 and -2023. (The basket size is up a lot during this period.

Notable Hit 1: On Thursday February 20, 2025 Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) posted revenues of $328.7 mm surpassing the analysts estimates by 1% and in the same direction of Advan’s implied sales. Advan’s data showed a 10.5% increase YoY in foot traffic to its restaurants in Q4 2024; the company’s revenue increased 14.8% YoY. The stock opened 14% up from previous close. Advan’s footfall data has a correlation of 0.96 on a YoY basis with SHAK’s top-line revenue over the last 19 quarters.

Savers Q4 results showed US sales up +10.5% and comp-sales up +4.7%. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +8.2% estimate* (+/- 40 bps T4Q Moe, 95% T5Q correlation). The 230 bps of outperformance largely reflects a +580 bps contribution from the bolus of new stores opening in the 2H (vs. the 6-month trend of 390 bps). (The year-end U.S. store count was up +11.6% vs the 1H’s +8.6%.) Unfortunately for the company, its large Canadian business continues to be an anchor with comp-sales down -2.

Sprouts reported Q4 results showed sales up +18%, comp-sales up +11.5%, and gross margin up +160 bps. The sales increase was well ahead of Advan’s +15.4% estimate* (+/- 130 bps T4Q Moe, 96% T8Q correlation) although Advan’s estimate did correctly forecast a beat vs consensus**. E-commerce grew at a much stronger +37% rate, which added 300bps to the comp growth; additionally, a larger basket size contributed to comp-growth. Those two led to the outperformance versus our estimate.

Walmart U.S. Q4 results showed sales up +5.0%, comp-sales up +4.6%, and operating margin up +12 bps. The sales increase was ahead of Advan’s +4.3% estimate* (+/- 90 bps T4Q Moe, 55% T8Q correlation). Excluding e-commerce, curbside, store delivery, and marketplace, comp-sales increased +1.7%. Excluding the average ticket increase of +1.8% implies a slight comp-traffic increase for the period, right in line with Advan’s +0.6% estimate. (Management did say in-store comp transactions were positive.

Notable Hit 1: (RRR:NASDAQ) On Tuesday February 11, 2025 Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR) posted revenues of $495.7 mm surpassing the analysts estimates by 0.82% and closer to Advan’s implied sales of 492.5 mm (-0.61%). Advan’s data showed a 10.1% increase YoY in foot traffic to its resorts in Q4 2024; the company’s revenue increased 7.1% YoY. As a result of beating revenue and earnings as well as the declaration of quarterly dividends, the company’s stock next day opened 4.

Ahold reported a stronger set of figures for Q4. Per Advan Research, traffic is even better 2025-to-date, including for its Stop & Shop, as shown in the chart below. The improvement is on both a 1-year and 2-year basis for all Ahold brands. On its results, management noted that volumes for the U.S. business had finally turned positive and that consumers were responding to its price investments in the market (i.

SiteOne’s business and results are interesting these days as they provide a read on the results of immigration policy on industries heavily dependent on immigrants, extreme weather and natural disasters, commodity inflation, and housing. The latter three of these were impactful to SiteOne’s Q4 as one can see in the chart below, obviously especially for Florida. The pick up following the hurricanes was quite abrupt and one would expect those orders to be larger which may be behind SiteOne’s daily volume increase of +4.

Differentiation was the key to growth in sales and market share in food retail in 2024 – a challenging year for conventional retailer offerings. As shown above, Whole Foods enjoyed robust comp-traffic all year long, and the traffic aligns with its reported sales growth rate of mid-single-digits-plus, with a Q4 increase of +8%. (Mid-February comp-traffic is +7% on a T4W basis.) In our observations at their locations, the success stems from leveraging the Amazon relationship, sharper value on its offering, and solid execution on retail fundamentals.

As traffic data and intra-quarter commentary indicated, U.S. comp-sales deteriorated QoQ by -110bps for a -1.4% decline for Q4. Advan Research data showed a -136bps deterioration in traffic and -115bps in spend*. However, since the E. coli scare in October , the traffic and sales trend has improved as shown in the chart above. CEO Kris Kempczinski stated, “The U.S. food safety issue is now largely behind us, and we expect to have fully recovered by the beginning of Q2.