• January retail sales should be strong when they are reported. Broadly speaking, the retailers that were strong in FQ3 and for the holidays, continued to do well in January.
  • Target is an exception with stronger observed results for FQ4 vs. FQ3, by contrast, Best Buy is worse.

Within the context that January is a light month for retail, and often a payback period following ebullient holiday periods (see our review here ), we often make light of the month. Additionally, the weather can be very disruptive, as was the case recently. The brutal outside environment towards the end of the month likely pushed commerce on-line to the benefit of Amazon and delivery services. However, broadly speaking, the retailers that were strong in FQ3 and for the holidays, continued to do well in January. When the Census Bureau’s read of January comes out (TBD), we expect a solid report.  In terms of names, we call out the following (excluding ICR names, which we covered here ):

  • As was the case in our holiday review, Walmart capped off its strong FQ4 with a strong January (observed in-store traffic +4.2%). Per its merchandise strategy to emphasize affordability and value, in-store average ticket (excluding RX sales) was flat for the quarter. For reported comp-sales, the in-store comp-traffic will be complemented by strong RX sales (GLP-1s) and ecommerce (both store delivery and curbside), which was +high-teens to low 20s per our data. (Read our FQ3 review here .)
  • As everyone knows, Target’s incoming CEO, Michael Fiddelke, has a large challenge to return Target to growth. Yesterday, he put a letter out  on “Target’s Next Chapter.” Going his way are a strong passion to win with an aligned team, easy comps, and a much better FQ4. Observed in-store traffic for Fiscal Q4 was down just slightly (on a per-store average basis) and much better than FQ3. Enhancing the in-store comp-traffic should be a slight increase in comp-ticket and faster ecommerce growth. (Read our FQ3 review here .)
  • Ross Stores, which had a terrific FQ3 , repeated with a very strong FQ4. Traffic was stronger QoQ and comp-ticket (mix driven on more better & best brands) will again be a strong contributor. 
  • Dicks Sporting Goods, which also had a terrific FQ3, repeated with a stronger FQ4, stronger traffic, similar comp-ticket increase, and strong ecommerce results. 
  • Best Buy had a very soft holiday and FQ4 - See our note on Apple’s holiday result
  • Luxury had a strong Q4, levered to affluence and the upward right arm of the K-shaped economy. LVMH was light per its recently reported results, others will be fine. American Express reported Q4 results last week and CFO Christophe Le Caillec said, “Retail spending continued to show good momentum in the quarter, up 10% and spending at luxury retail merchants was up 15%, reflecting the continued strength of our customer base. Growth in airline and lodging spend was largely stable and restaurant spending was up 9% once again this quarter.” (Trends that align well with our Holiday wrap-up note.) American Express’ 2026 guidance for 8-10% revenue growth implies no moderation in spend from Q4’s levels.