Dollar General’s results where consistent and “more consistency” has been management’s goal for over a year. They delivered that this year and the 2026 outlook was for continuation of that. Like in the off-price / treasure-hunt retail industry (our note here ), Olli’s is benefitting from greater disruption in adjacent industries. For Ollie’s, this is the conventional grocery and snacks industries. Neither company suggested any near-term favorable lift in demand from this tax season’s increased refunds.

ROST and BURL both turned in much above-plan results (and expectations). However, the composition of the comp-sales increase was quite distinct between the two, with ROSS’ driven by an increase in comp-transactions and BURL’s driven by an increase in comp-ticket. Consumers’ time shopping ROST increased markedly, as did its conversion rate; whereas, consumers’ time shopping BURL declined, as did UPT. Off-price retail should really be called “treasure-hunt” retail. The more time consumers spend shopping the store, the more opportunity there is for adding more items in the basket (UPT).

Costco and Kroger both turned in strong results, in aggregate, relative to expectations. Obviously, Costco has faster growth given its deep value positioning and affluent customer mix. For the fiscal periods, Costco grew its US grocery business by roughly +$10B (annualized) vs. Kroger’s growth of $1.4B. Incoming Kroger CEO Greg Foran offered an early take on where he wants to take Kroger – move faster, systemize consistency in experience and enhanced product quality / freshness, and more price investment.

Grocery Outlet reported another quarter of below plan sales, that along with a soft 2026 YTD trend and a review of new store performance (classes from ’22 – ’25) has lead management and the Board to conclude that the most favorable outcome is to close 36 locations (especially in Maryland and Pennsylvania), as well as to evaluate selling its recently acquired United Grocery Outlet chain. Overall comp-sales have been pressured by fewer items in the basket (UPT) as shoppers are not finding the WOW!

As the re-Tarjay-fication of Target is just underway, top-line results for FQ4 were expected to be soft, and they were. The sales mix was also little changed. However, profit margins were favorable. The January trends improved despite the adverse weather at the end of the month. Shopping increased +2% for the month and visit frequency has stabilized. Both measures suggest early success with Target’s re-merchandising. Management noted that comps in Feb > Jan > Dec > Nov – just as observed traffic shows.

Marmaxx produced a strong +5% comp-sales increase and HomeGoods a stronger +6%. For Marmaxx (TJ Maxx and Marshalls), the commentary and comp composition suggest that its merchants were able to source something extra special in terms of “best” brands. This would be from Neiman / Saks’ high-end vendors that had to redirect orders elsewhere given Neiman / Saks’ inability to pay for them. We now suspect that this “extra special” sourcing or “boost of luxury” also drove FQ3 and Ross’ results.

Walmart again reported strong results for Walmart US and Sam’s Club, with the business model rapidly changing with fast delivery / upgraded merchandise offerings attracting more affluent households and that / retail evolution producing a large profit pool of alternative revenue streams (advertising, etc.) that allows Walmart to lean into EDLP, and drive more separation from incumbent retail. FQ4 contained a lot of external noise, hurricane comps, government shutdown, a more choiceful lower-end consumer, and yet, Walmart delivered +4.

McDonald’s produced a very strong +6.8% comp-store increase in the US, driven by both ticket and traffic as it leaned into its value brand promise, strongly executed price / product architecture, loyalty, and winning marketing Quarterly traffic (+0.8%) benefitted from strong trade-in by younger urban / suburban consumers (traffic +11%), partially offset by some trade-out by affluent households (GLP-1) and Hispanic households. December, by initiative (i.e. management’s intent), won strong traffic by the lower half of household incomes (traffic +1.

The wireless / cable industry’s competitive fervor is intensifying, for which the i-Phone 17’s high consumer appeal has been an agent; Apple is a large beneficiary of that fervor. The intensity has risen because: (1) increasing overall wireline-to-wireless convergence (lots of new fiber being laid down and traditional cable’s contraction is worsening), and (2) Verizon has a new CEO (or sheriff) that’s gunning for market share of net-adds. Observed visitation (Advan) market share trends have aligned with T-Mobile’s trends in postpaid phone net adds.

O’Reilly Auto reported sales trends largely consistent with Q3 trends. Its market share capture in Commercial was again very strong. The DIY side of the business is still soft, reflecting that consumer. That said, vehicles need to be repaired when they break down, and so the volume decline in DIY is reasonably benign. Competition appears rational, given O’Reilly’s strong gross margin performance and despite O’Reilly moving into new East Coast markets; they win durable market share by out-serving the competition.