January retail sales should be strong when they are reported. Broadly speaking, the retailers that were strong in FQ3 and for the holidays, continued to do well in January. Target is an exception with stronger observed results for FQ4 vs. FQ3, by contrast, Best Buy is worse. Within the context that January is a light month for retail, and often a payback period following ebullient holiday periods (see our review here ), we often make light of the month.

Apple won the Holiday in consumer electronics due to compelling new products (largely the iPhone) and a highly competitive US wireless industry. The industry’s strong offers on handsets to subscribers (subsidies), is putting more money into Apple’s coffer. Given the high spend on Apple’s products this holiday season and the vast number of retail brands that sell the iPhone, that crowded out consumer spending in consumer electronics and at Best Buy.

Starbucks reported much improved comp-growth for its Dec. quarter, including in the US. The improvement stems from the turnaround initiatives devised by CEO Brian Niccol (now five quarters in the role.) Advan data closely matches management’s proof points on the turnaround. The introduced annual guidance indicates that management expects the momentum to build. Niccol’s plan is working, including the reinvestment in store standards, service levels, and brand. Better profit levels are to come in the 2H.

Chili’s comped- the comp and sales are now 62% higher than four years ago. Current QTD comp traffic is running above guidance (per Advan). Chili’s continues to win the “moment of truth” in where consumers choose to dine due to its brand standing for greater value (bang-for-your-buck); Chili’s intends to reinforce that perception and will underprice inflation and competitors in 2026; most will be forced to raise menu prices to offset beef cost inflation.

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At this week’s ICR conference, most presenting retailers announced that they had an on-plan, or better, holiday season. The message from restaurant companies was more nuanced, full-service better (in-line with our preview), limited service, still facing headwinds, which are likely to last for the 1H, excluding the $90bn estimated (per Morgan Stanley) increase in consumption from consumer-facing tax cuts (OBBBA). Yes, lots of talk of AI. It won’t be 2026.

Aritzia reported very strong sales growth for its fiscal Q3, +54% for the US region, and while management guided for a slower rate for FQ4, Advan’s transaction data points to ongoing strength (+50%) suggested a lot of conservatism in that guide. Aritzia is driving strong growth in both established regions (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) through strong digital sales and store-level comp-sales increases, and new markets, ahead of having a physical store in them.

In a difficult industry backdrop, Albertsons Co. is driving stronger traffic and less-bad unit trends by amplifying its loyalty offers and passing less cost inflation on to its shoppers; both of which eat into margin. Management doesn’t expect the environment to improve anytime soon, and so, they are doing what they can control – reorganizing, restructuring work streams, and cutting costs to pay for the greater value presented to shoppers, while also contemporizing their services – expanded and fast store delivery (more than half of the quarters digital orders were delivered in 3 hours or less), AI shopping agents, etc.

Chipotle introduced new low-price-point menu items on December 23rd, such as the High Protein Cup of Adobo Chicken at $3.82 and a Single Chicken Taco at $3.50. The aim, in our view, is to address affordability perceptions and put something of substance on the menu for lighter eaters. Traffic built leading into the launch; however, one week later, the enthusiasm waned. Moreover, the stronger period was matched by Taco Bell, which also enjoyed a favorable spurt.

Amazon, Walmart, Five Below, and Ross Dress for Less have continued to outperform in traffic and spend. Most brands have shown a stronger trend than last week, especially Kohl’s and Ross. Store spend has been less vibrant than traffic due to more shopping around for deals, i.e. some average ticket pressure, and online wallet taking share. Last week, we wrote that we expected the pace of holiday foot traffic to accelerate going into Christmas day, and as shown below, that has happened; however, Advan’s transaction data shows that store spending has not, save department stores and off-price.