Target (NYCE: TGT) announced today that it expects lower profit due to high inventory. It is counter-intuitive, but cellphone location data is measuring this discrepancy by monitoring Target’s supply and demand sides. On the demand side, in the image below we can see foot traffic in Target stores () and its associated blue trendline being relatively steady, at a 3% Y/Y increase vs same quarter last year, and closely following the revenue y/y change; on the supply side however we see that employees in Target distribution facilities () are up 48% on a Y/Y basis for the last quarter, and this over-supply has persisted for the last 3 fiscal quarters.

Amazon, one of the companies that benefited the most from the pandemic as shoppers shifted towards online shopping, is now experiencing a significant slowdown as consumer behavior started to change. On Thursday April 28, 2022 the company reported $116.4 billion in revenue for the quarter that ended on 3/31, up 7.3% from a year earlier however it was Amazon’s slowest quarterly growth in years: down from 44% revenue increase in 1Q21.

The hardest-hit New York City is bouncing back once again as Omicron cases continue to rapidly fall at the same speed they increased in mid-December and New Yorkers look forward to enjoy the city as it was before the pandemic. ADVAN’s foot traffic data shows an uptick in foot traffic mobility overall however the trends differs from area to area. For example, foot traffic in fashionable SoHo started to increase significantly the first weekend of this month after the Omicron wave started to subside in the second half of January.

Traffic on Black Friday after Thanksgiving was materially higher across Advan Indices compared with last year’s levels. But visits are still down compared to 2019 records for most of the indices. Clothing and Accessories index saw an increase of 55% yoy but down 15.3% Yo2Y while Furniture and Food Stores including food stores such as Kirkland’s/Restoration Hardware and Kroger’s and Whole Foods respectively have bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. The biggest difference has been observed on Gas Stations index, which saw an increase in traffic of over 66% year-over-two-year as the Americans have been still driving more than they ever did.

Following up from our recent blogpost that we measure the recovery of the Malls, we have revisited all these properties to see how the picture looks like if we incorporate the full month of September. In summary nothing has really changed, the full recovery still remains to be seen. The foot traffic on August was worse across the board while September was slightly better than August on a Yo2Y basis but we are still not in a full recovery territory yet.

There was a location data report published last month called ‘Malls Rise Once Again’ that caught people’s attention. It claimed that malls have made a ‘full COVID recovery’ and have as many visitors as in 2019. We at Advan live and breathe location data, so our intuitive response was ‘no way, how have we missed this… ’. The reality is, while mall traffic has certainly been improving, it is still down 22% versus 2019.

While the world seemingly shut down when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, grocery stores had a steadier path than the rest of the economy. On the other hand, many big box stores like Target, Costco, and Walmart, experienced a bit more volatility with higher highs, but also lower lows. Big box stores saw a 28.4% decrease in foot traffic in April 2020, but then jumped back up 28% the following month. On the other hand, grocery store foot traffic decreased only 18.

On Monday, July 19, 2021, Ice Cream brand Ben & Jerry’s announced that it will cease selling ice cream in West Bank. The announcement was followed by widespread condemnation from the Jewish community worldwide, and a stern warning from Israel’s PM to Unilever, B&J’s parent company, that there would be legal and other consequences. But what about the actual customers? How have they reacted? Looking at the recent foot traffic across all 380 Ben & Jerry’s stores that Advan Research covers, there does not seem to be a material effect on customer visits.

The answer is: Yes and no. Road trips are back but air travel is slower to recover. Using our latest traffic pattern data, some interesting new travel trends emerged over the Memorial Day weekend (MDW) - the unofficial beginning of the summer season for many Americans on the go. We believe this pattern could be a leading indicator for consumer behavior as we move closer to Independence Day in July and the summer vacation period.

For years, Apple has been a force to reckon with. Many retail brands have seen their share of discretionary spending lost, as consumers prefer that new iWatch to some other luxury item, be it clothing or accessory. But, is that trend here to stay? Has the consumer had enough of virtual items during the pandemic, and is sporting a new iPhone as big of a fashion statement as it used to be a couple of years ago?