With all the adults over 16 now being eligible for COVID-19 vaccines, the U.S. is on track to vaccinate 70% of its population by mid to late June. The vaccination pace has been significantly increased on a weekly basis since the start back in the second half of December 2020, hitting now an average of over 3 million Americans getting vaccinated daily. In regards to the new COVID-19 cases, after the recent drop from the pick in January new cases have been plateaued, and most recently have started to tick up a bit.

It’s been a year now into full or partial lockdowns, social distancing rules and work from home as a result of the COVID crisis which unequivocally forced people to spend more time into their homes and consequently to change their shopping habits - reconsidering what is essential and therefore set new priorities on what to buy. One of the new essentials seems to be – not surprisingly – bedding products as people seek extra comfort at home.

One of the most popular use cases of location data for landlords and developers is the site selection. Another more popular for Real Estate investors, Private Equity firms and retailers is monitoring of the performance of their assets/stores. On a recent article published by Kate Gibson, Kroger, one of the most prominent grocers in the US, is expected to shut down two California stores to avoid offering workers ‘hazard pay’. Both of these stores are located in the Long Beach area, one is under the Ralph’s franchise while the second one under Food 4 Less(both brands are Kroger subsidiaries).

Foot traffic analysis for hotels around the US showed vastly different trends over the holiday season. Compared to the first week of November, hotels in Florida saw a foot traffic uptick of 20% in the week of December 22 - 28, and up 40% in the week between Christmas and New Year, as Americans flocked to warmer climates. Colorado hotels also saw a healthy increase in traffic of 19% in the final week of the year as skiers took to the slopes over the holidays.

There is no question that a segment of retail has moved online this year. Offline (i.e.in-store) credit and debit card spending is down 15% year-over-year versus total spend according to transaction data from ConsumerEdge. Foot traffic at consumer discretionary store locations is also 20% lower year-over-year than foot traffic to production locations for consumer discretionary retailers. These parallel trends show us that foot traffic trends at store locations closely reflect offline spending, while traffic at production facilities gives us a window into total spend - both online and offline.

Malls around the US suffered a significant blow during what is usually the busiest shopping weekend of the year. Foot traffic was down 41% year-over-year on Black Friday and 45% on Saturday. As we reported in our blog post last week, there was a pick-up in traffic during the first three weeks of November as many people opted to take care of their shopping sooner, in order to beat the rush and in anticipation of lock-down orders across the country.

In a previous blog post we talked about how the home improvement sector has been one of the bright spots in the pandemic. Year-over-year foot traffic to building material retailers was up 26% in September. Given this trend, we wanted to look in more detail at one of the most popular companies in the home improvement sector - Ikea. While foot traffic at Ikea stores fell to 0 between April and June, once stores reopened traffic rebounded almost immediately to pre-pandemic levels.

There’s no question that the retail sector has been hit hard this year. Foot traffic at Macy’s, which was already struggling prior to the pandemic, was down 64% last quarter compared to the same quarter in 2019. Like many of its peers, Macy’s has relied on its online business to bolster revenues during a period when many of its stores were closed. But, although overall sales have slumped, an interesting trend has emerged for those who do visit stores.

What does a COVID recovery look like for businesses? 6 months after the initial lock-down we know that, in the US, the journey has been remarkably different for different types of businesses. Our foot traffic indices capture trends that show just how varied the path has been. We looked at the percentage change in foot traffic for 5 different sectors during each month of this year. Starting in March, of those we analyzed, the sectors most quickly impacted were clothing & accessories.

As a continuation of our previous analysis Path to Recovery Far from Clear , we updated the data to show how the foot traffic trend at consumer discretionary businesses varies in three states: California, New York and Texas. The US faces a deep coronavirus crisis as new cases are surging to record highs in many states. Texas was one of the first states to reopen in May with restaurants, retail stores, malls and even theaters to allow to reopen at limited capacity.